European PMIs Paint Mixed Picture, ECB advise a June Cut is Certain

[Mr. Job]

الصحف المصرية والعربية

• The German DAX recorded its highest monthly increase as investors continue to predict a weaker EU monetary policy.
• JP Morgan again advised stocks are overcrowded and may see a stronger downward correction. However, economists advise this is only possible if geo-political tension escalates or companies fail to beat earnings predictions.
• Gold witnesses its strongest decline in 2024 falling 2.64% on Monday and a further 1.32% during this morning’s Asian session.
• The Euro is the best performing currency after the day’s PMI releases. However, investors should note that the US Dollar during the Asian session was performing significantly better.

USA500 – Visa and Tesla Ready Shareholders For Earnings Release!

The SNP500 rose 0.87% during the US trading session and also broke the previous swing high. However, JP Morgan again told journalists there are signs that the stock market is “overcrowded”. When institutions are overexposed to certain stocks or industries, it only takes one big fund to start de-levering and then others will follow.

Though, investors should note that this would also depend on three factors. The first is earnings, the second is geo-political tensions and the third is inflation. This week, investors will largely watch earnings, particularly Visa and Tesla. Visa and Tesla currently hold a weight of 2.00% and are two of the most influential stocks. Tesla continues to be one of the worst performing stocks, but Visa’s earnings are less certain.

Visa has beat earnings and revenue expectations over the past 4 occasions but has been struggling over the past 30 days. Analysts expect earnings and revenue to remain at the same level compared to the previous quarter. However, higher earnings can potentially increase demand. Visa stocks have risen 5.20% in 2024 and have a dividend yield of 0.76%.



However, as mentioned above, the performance of the stock market will largely depend also on inflation and geo-political tensions. Though these are not likely to change within the upcoming days. In regard to inflation, investors will be eager to see if inflation again rises, in which case, interest rate cuts will likely not be possible for 2024. If this scenario materialises, stocks can decline between 20-30% ($3,700-$4,220).

GER30 *– ECB Ready To Cut Rates In June 2024!

On a 2-hour timeframe the price of the GER30 is trading above the 75-Bar EMA and above the VWAP. In addition to this, the asset is obtaining buy signals also from oscillators and price action. The index has retraced since the release of the European PMI data, but if the price rises above 18,067, without breaking the day’s low price, buy signals will become active.



One of the key drivers, along with this morning’s PMI release for Germany and France, is the latest comments from members of the ECB. According to ECB representative Mr Villeroy, even if oil remains volatile, the regulator will look to cut in June 2024. In addition to Mr Villeroy, Mr De Guindos told journalists that a rate cut in June is “crystal clear”. The guidance given is increasing the demand for the German DAX as are indications of stronger economic data.

The French PMI data saw the Services index rise above 50.00 for the first time since May 2023 and beat expectations. However, the manufacturing index continues to struggle and fell compared to the previous month. The German PMI was a similar picture. The Services PMI rose to a 10-month high and beat expectations, but the Manufacturing Index read lower than the 42.8 expectations and is at a 6-month low.

Michalis Efthymiou

Market Analyst

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