Market News ? Cautiousness ahead of Fed, NFP & Earnings

[Mr. Job]

Economic Indicators & Central Banks:

• Trading remains quiet in a very busy week of data, earnings, supply, NFP and the Fed.
• Treasury yields and Wall Street posted small gains on the day but overall reain steady. It looks like fatigue has set in for the bears after knocking bonds and stocks sharply lower on the month.
• European equity futures are also steady, while the USD rose slightly against the G7 amid speculation the Fed may take a more hawkish tone when announcing its policy decision on Wednesday.
• German retail sales bounced 1.8% m/m in March. Sales were still down -2.7% y/y, but the rebound at the end of the first quarter is encouraging and suggests that higher wages and lower inflation are boosting consumption trends.
• German import price inflation was higher than expected. With the Euro lower against the Dollar, import price inflation is set to continue to nudge higher.
• French GDP expanded 0.2% q/q in the Q1 of the year.
• Japan’s unemployment unexpectedly was at 2.6% in March 2024, the same pace as in the prior month.

Financial Markets Performance:

• The USDIndex recovered slightly but holds below 105.90.
• After the assumed MoF intervention to support the Yen USDJPY was knocked down to an intraday low of 154.54 from a new 34-year high of 160.17.
• Soft Commodities: Top losers are Cocoa (-11.15%) and Wheat (-9.84%). Gains are led by Sugar (3.74%), Cotton (1.57%) and Rapeseed (1.25%).
• Metals: Top gainers are Platinum (3.70%) and Copper (2.12%). Biggest losers are Steel Rebar (-0.81%) and Silver (-0.50%). In addition, there was a slight change on Gold (-0.14%).
• Energies: Top commodity gainers are Natural gas (6.78%). Biggest losers are Natural Gas UK GBP (-4.89%), Natural Gas EU Dutch TTF (-3.85%) and Crude Oil WTI (-1.22%). In addition, there was a slight change on Brent Crude Oil (-1.09%).

Market Trends:

• Stocks were modestly higher with gains of 0.39% on the Dow, with the S&P500 and NASDAQ advancing 0.32% and 0.35%, respectively.
• Tesla rallied as much as 15% after receiving the green light for full self-driving technology in China, while Trump Media jumped 12% to boost gains on Wall Street.
• Earnings releases this week from the biggest US players include Amazon, McDonald’s, Apple and Coca-Cola. Meanwhile, Paramount is expected to post its earnings after today’s close.

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Andria Pichidi

Market Analyst

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